I am breaking my blogging silence to go on record with my
predictions for the 2014 Nobel Prize.
The physics prize will be awarded next Tuesday, so place your bets now!.
(Last year was too easy, everyone knew it was going to be Higgs).
A lot of people think I am placing my money years too early, but I really think the time is now ripe for Topological Insulators to receive a Nobel Prize. My reasons:
(A)
The topic has been hugely influential, and has
very much changed how we think about matter
(B)
The Nobel Committee tends to rotate between fields, and
condensed matter last got the prize in 2010 (graphene), so I think the stars
are properly aligned.
(C)
There was a “Nobel Symposium” on Topological
Insulators this summer, and that is a good sign.
So who will be included on the
prize? This is where things get
complicated. Charlie Kane is probably a lock, but beyond this, things are up in the air.
Case 1) Prize emphasizes theory of topology in condensed
matter
Charlie Kane, for topological
insulators
Duncan
Haldane, for spin chains
David
Thouless, for topological quantum numbers
Pro: Thouless is
someone who really should have gotten a prize for something by this time!
Con: Volovik should
be included (I suppose one could swap
out Haldane, but the spin chain work was pretty important too!)
Case 2) Prize emphasizes quantum spin Hall physics
Shou-Cheng
Zhang, for prediction of quantum spin Hall effect
Laurens Molenkamp, for experimental observation of quantum spin Hall effect
Charlie
Kane, for topological Insulators
Pro: Contains experiment
Con: So what? This field has been driven much more by theory
Pro: There is political force in
the community behind this one
Con: There is political force in the
community behind this one
Case 3) Prize recognizes discovery of the Z2 invariant in 2D
Charlie
Kane and Gene Mele for one killer paper.
Pro: Very simple and focused
Con: Leaves everyone else out.
The 3D topological insulators, would be hard to recognize with a prize simply because too many people were
involved both in the theoretical and experimental aspects of the discovery.
If Topological Insulators is indeed awarded the prize, I will put in a blog post explaining what they are. I might also add a story about sitting in a bomb shelter with Charlie Kane while being shelled by Hamas in Israel this summer. And I might explain what this picture is about...